Property advisory and research firm Charter Keck Cramer has released its State of the Market H1 2026 report, highlighting a sector split between chronic undersupply, a looming self-managed super fund (SMSF) lending shake-up, and a Build to Rent boom reshaping Melbourne’s skyline.
According to the report, Australia’s apartment market needs to build significantly more homes than it currently is. The firm’s six-monthly national forecast finds an annual apartment shortfall of between 13,000 and 21,000 dwellings across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra – with the Gold Coast the only capital city market forecast to build enough to meet demand.
“The data makes clear that closing Australia’s housing gap isn’t only a question of planning approvals – it’s about the settings that determine whether approved projects can actually get built.
“Investor presales have long been the mechanism that gets new supply out of the ground, and policy needs to account for that role rather than treat all buyers the same. Build to Rent is a genuine part of the solution and institutional confidence in the sector remains strong, but it can’t close the gap on its own.
“Government, lenders and industry all have a part to play if we’re serious about turning this shortfall around.”
Richard Temlett, National Executive Director of Research, Charter Keck Cramer
The Federal Budget’s proposed changes to SMSF lending have put a significant amount of future apartment supply at risk of not being delivered. Presales to investor buyers, including SMSFs, are typically what allow developers to demonstrate project viability and secure financing in the first place; without them, projects stall or don’t proceed at all.
At the same time, institutional capital is stepping into the gap left by a weaker Build to Sell market. The report forecasts Build to Rent will deliver more than half of all new apartments completed in Melbourne by FY2027 – a marked shift in who is building new housing, who is holding the stock, and how Australians will access apartment living in the years ahead.
Charter Keck Cramer is calling for a carve-out that would allow SMSFs to continue purchasing into new apartment projects under current settings.
